You’ll often hear it said that the SAG awards ‘predict’ the Oscar winners. While that’s not quite true- the two award shows are different entities, and nothing is ever set in stone- they certainly are regarded as a vitally important step for a successful Oscar campaign. Today BLAKE & WANG P.A takes a look at why the two are so intertwined.
Brandon Blake- Managing partner at Blake & Wang P.A.
In the last quarter-century, 73% of SAG Award winners in the 4 acting categories went on to win at the Oscars. It’s been four for four in seven ceremonies. Eleven other years saw three out of four winners carry over. That’s certainly pretty impressive no matter which way you look at it. It’s important to note, however, that this overlap tends to occur only with the 4 major acting categories. Best Picture has always had a far greater variance between the two ceremonies.
The major difference between the two ceremonies is that the SAG awards include TV, whereas the Oscars are solely focused on film. Yet, why does one seem to predict the other,? And why the discrepancy between acting and Best Picture? To be honest, the answer is pretty simple- a considerable bulk of the voting body for each overlaps. They both draw from industry members, and many actors (and, possibly, actor-directors) qualify for both. So there’s bound to be a sizable chunk of overlap. The Screen Actors Guild, of course, is comprised solely of working actors, unlike the more varied Oscar committees. So this is where the greatest overlap of industry professionals occurs between the two ceremonies. Thus, we arrive at a situation where opinions on those worth for nomination in each acting category for each award ceremony tend to look very similar.
All the same, success at the SAG awards does tend to make an Oscar victory far more likely, so keeping a critical eye on the SAG award nominees is vital for anyone keen on an Oscar nomination down the road. With this year’s award ceremonies destined to be one of the least predictable on record, this will be an important indicator of things to come.
